Money Management

Money management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don't have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering.

BANKROLL
One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.

BANKROLL UNIT BET
A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S%P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals.

THE PLAN
The Plan is a very simple one. Start will 3% wagers and increase your wagers as your bankroll increases, but do it at safe 20% intervals. This will allow you to get well over and beyond any real possibility of going back to the previous level but will also increase your chances of pocketing more money as your funds grow. I had hoped to build a chart and I will but for now I am just getting the info up as I feel it is very important. Take note that because I am using 3% Bankroll Plays as an example, it would take 6.67 Units won (3% X 6.67 = 20%) to reach the next level. That works out to be about 1.55 Units per week if you set a goal of moving up each level monthly. (1.55 X 4.3 weeks) It is important to note that once you reach a level, you should keep your wagers at that level until you reach the next one, either up or down. Now, for the fun part. Let's see what results would be based on these facts....

BANKROLL UNIT B UNITS WON
$5,000 150 6.67
$6,000 180 13.34
$7,200 220 20.01
$8,600 260 26.68
$10,300 310 33.35
$12,300 370 40.02
$14,700 440 46.69
$17,600 530 53.36
$21,100 630 60.03
$25,200 760 66.70
$30,200 900 73.37
$36,300 1090 80.04

RESULTS
As you can see, by winning 6.67 Units per month, in one year, your bankroll would increase from just $5000 to over $36,000, yet your overall risk would remain the same, just 3% per wager. By increasing your wagers at pre-determined points and keeping your wagers at a basically even keel, you will be more successful than you have ever been before. Of course, at some point you will want to stop increasing your wagers as you reach your own comfort level. That is when the real fun begins as you start dragging your money of your accounts. At this point, all you need to do is to make sure you are getting good advice on what to bet or have a plan yourself to accomplish that same goal. I have certainly reached my comfort level and you will too if you follow this program. I hope that you choose to do so.

Baseball Profits: The Real Story by: The Players Advantage

Baseball can be a very profitable sport for both the dedicated handicapper as well as the casual bettor. One of the keys in creating and maintaining profits is one that, unfortunately, is often overlooked. This key area that “slips between the cracks” for many casual bettors relates to properly evaluating streaks. Note that the streaks I am speaking of are not the streaks of the teams on the field, rather they are the streaks of the handicappers and the importance of the money line in baseball. This important subject is one that must be fully comprehended if you want to make very significant profits betting baseball.

The key in evaluating baseball profitability comes down to the money lines. There are many handicappers out there that are hitting 45% of their picks and doing a much better job than those that are hitting 55% of their picks. This is where baseball is much different than football or basketball because there is no point spread involved. If this seems rather elementary a quick refresher on how the dollars fall to the bottom line is something you should not overlook. Personally I get very frustrated when I see handicappers advertising hot streaks in baseball and then come to find out that many of their losses are 150, 175, and 200 money line favorites. This is simply not fair to the consumer unless it is properly spelled out in any documentation relating to their streaks. Note that if a handicapper is hitting 60% on the full season but playing all 150 favorites his net profit would be zilch, zero, nada! He’s just breaking even because the juice is eating away at his profits on every loss.

Some handicappers play a lot of underdogs and note the positive impact that this has on your bottom line. If you’re hitting just 40% of your plays but they average out to be 150 dogs you’re at break even. Sounds crazy, right? Breaking even while only picking 40% winners just seems odd. However, it’s the simple power of the positive money line that allows this. Now, certainly I am not saying that there aren’t successful handicappers out there who play a lot of favorites. What I am saying though is that it is definitely “buyer beware” in this industry. Find a handicapper whose style you like and make sure you understand more than just his winning percentage in the baseball…you must understand what types of plays he’s giving you.

As of action through Sunday June 17th my baseball run is documented at 56-25. That is a 69% run and there is no “fluff” in this record. The reason I say that is because most all of my plays are totals. Of these 81 plays only 11 were sides. That means nearly 90% of my plays are totals. This is no surprise as that is my specialty in baseball but the key point is this: the average line on a total is -110 either way…just like in football or basketball with point spreads. In other words, a 69% streak in baseball that involves plays like this is something that makes a lot of money. Of the 11 side plays released during this streak they went 6-5. The biggest money line favorite I lost had a line, at the time I released the play for that day, of just 135. That’s why a person playing each play for just $100 per play, regardless of the way I rated the play, would have netted nearly $3000 during this long-term documented streak.

The point of this article, I assure you, is not to “blow my own horn”. This has been a great run and I expect it to continue but every day brings new challenges. The key point here is to best educate all baseball bettors out there as to the pitfalls of following streaky handicappers. Make sure you know what you’re getting when you’re “buying into” a handicapper’s streak. Also make sure that you understand the impact of money line plays on your bankroll and how totals, underdogs, and small favorites, are so much easier on your bankroll than stepping out on a bunch of big favorites. In the long run, you will make a lot more money this summer if you first understand the full magnitude of the money line in baseball. Let’s face it, we’re all looking to build our bankrolls for football season. It will be here before you know it so be very mindful of how to best make money on the diamonds throughout the remainder of this baseball season…your wallet will thank you! As always, best of luck in all your gaming from Scott Rickenbach.

Tips on baseball betting.

As a handicapper, there are some important things to look at before you decide to back a team with a selection. My job is to guide you through some of the angles and situations that make a difference in betting baseball.

Starting Pitching: The starting pitcher is single-handedly the biggest factor when placing a wager on a MLB game. How can you tell? Do you see any quarterback names being listed next to an NFL team on the betting board at the Mirage?

• Let me give you an example: Every fifth day the Minnesota Twins have the pleasure of penciling in Cy Young Award Winner Johan Santana. For the casual bettor, it seems like a no-brainer to play the Twins against any opponent, but it has proven to be disastrous. The Twins are just 7-7 in Santanas 14 starts so far in 2007 and backers have lost an incredible $744.

Another major factor in looking at the starting pitcher is how he performs against a particular opponent. Some pitchers can simply dominate the opposition or struggle from the opening pitch.

• One of the surest bets in baseball since 2001 is playing Houston ace Roy Oswalt against division-rival Cincinnati. Oswalt has tallied a 19-1 record and 2.46 ERA in 24 career appearances (22 starts) against the Reds in his career. Of course, there are plenty of other factors to consider when betting Oswalt against the Reds, but honestly this is the only stat the betting public will need to gain confidence in betting Houston.

An angle that gets lost in shuffle sometimes is the home versus road dichotomy. Some pitchers simply pitch better in a familiar environment or enjoy life on the road. A certain mound or stadium may suit their pitching style better than others. Ive really taken notice of this angle recently in analyzing Red Sox starter Tim Wakefield and Los Angeles starter Ervin Santana:

• Wakefield enjoys pitching in a controlled environment due to his knuckle ball. I've read numerous articles that have quoted Wakefield in saying that a dome is favorable for a knuckle balls movement. His 2007 stats in dome stadiums certainly back this up, as hes 3-0 and has allowed just one earned run in 21 innings inside a roofed stadium.
• Santana certainly fits the home/road angle when handicapping a game that hes starting. The right-hander is an incredible 23-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 37 career starts at Angels Stadium, but get him on the road and hes below average. Hes a miserable 10-17 with a 6.72 ERA in 33 career starts away from home.

Bullpen: The game of baseball has certainly evolved over the last two decades and the bullpen is certainly in the forefront. Starting pitchers simply dont go the distance anymore and its not because their not fit enough. Managers have a wealth of information at their fingertips and will almost always look at the best possible match-up.

Take for instance a game that has similar starting pitchers matched up against each other. Sure you can take the home pitcher in this kind of situation, but its more important to look at which team has the stronger bullpen when the starters are removed.

With so many baseball games being won or lost by a single run, its crucial as a handicapper to take notice of the teams that have stronger pens. Its certainly no coincidence that the San Diego Padres (2.11 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (3.03 ERA) carry the lowest ERA and lead their respective leagues.

Hitting: The old saying goes, Good pitching will beat good hitting, but that certainly can be challenged over the course of a season. The top 5 hitting teams in MLB thru 70 games all have winning records: Detroit .293, Los Angeles .288, Seattle .284, New York (AL) .283 and Boston .273.

When looking at an offensive team, youre really looking to find a pitching match-up that they can exploit. Detroit's batting average is certainly impressive, but it gets even more attractive to play the Tigers against a left-handed starter due to their .314 average against them. You can gain even more confidence with a selection if the hitters have success versus that particular pitcher.

Base Running: This angle is often overlooked, but can be a major player in the right situation. The New York Mets lead the major leagues in stolen bases and it would be very difficult for a pitcher that has a slower move to the plate to eventually come up with a victory in an even match-up.

• On June 15, I was handicapping the New York Mets/New York Yankees game on a Friday night in Vegas. New York's Roger Clemens was making his second start of the year and it could be very easy to back him, but then this angle came to mind. The Mets came away with a 2-0 victory and shortstop Jose Reyes proved to be a deciding factor with three important stolen bases against a slower pitcher to the plate in Clemens.

Home/Road: Often times youll find that the top teams in the league Take Care of Business at home. Currently in the American League, each division leader has the best home record amongst its competitors.

One of the main factors of being a great home or road team is dealing with the distractions that come with each side. At home, a player may have family to deal with and personal matters outside the ball park that they normally wouldnt have on a road trip. On the other hand, when on the road players may fall out of their normal routine, as they live in hotels and eat at unfamiliar places.

Current Form: Possibly the simplest factor of all, but still very important. A team that is riding a win streak is obviously more confident when coming to the ball park and can turn into a buzz saw given the right situation.

Umpire: Most outcomes in MLB are determined by the players on the field, but the umpire behind home plate can certainly have a say as well. Both hitters and pitchers are constantly adjusting to the umpire throughout the game and some have found a hidden advantage with this angle.

Future Hall-of-Fame pitchers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux have benefited greatly in their careers with umpires that have a larger horizontal strike zone. Both dont have an overpowering fastball, but their pinpoint control is a dangerous opponent if the strike zone is extended a few inches off the corners.

The umpire can also be emotionally influenced by a home crowd in a tight ball game. This gives the home team a decisive advantage when the game is up for grabs in the late innings.

Saturday(30 June) Update 1

922 BAL / 921 ANA Over 9.5

This game sets up perfectly for plenty of runs on Saturday night in Camden Yards.

Los Angeles starter Bartolo Colon has been anything but impressive on the road this season with an ERA of almost 7. Colon has allowed 10 home runs in just 32 1/3 innings on the road. He has good career numbers against the Orioles, but Baltimore's current roster has hit him well in the past.

The Orioles counter with left-hander Brian Burres, who's struggled with his control for most of the year and will have a difficult time trying to hold the Angels to just one run over five innings in his second start againts them.

In struggling with his control, Burres has issued 34 walks in 56 1/3 innings - a dangerous stat versus a team that's hitting .290 on the season.

Fact of the matter is: both teams combined to leave 41 runners on base in that game with Burres going against Escobar at Los Angeles just a few weeks ago.

The OVER is 8-1 in Colon's last nine road starts as a favorite and 21-8 in his last 29 starts as a favorite overall.

The Orioles have picked up their offense lately, as the OVER is 9-2-1 in their last 12 overall and the bullpen can definitely help us out as well.

Result: Baltimore 6-3.

It was a tough loss but it came real close. We will try again tomorrow.

Baseball Handicapping

Will compile from cappers and post for everyone.